Here are my predictions for 2008:
- Buzz--The buzz topic of 2007 will continue to be energy and cleantech. We will see a huge growth in VC investments in such companies.
- Exits--We will see a dramatic increase in cross-border M&A with many Indian and Chinese companies acquiring US and European companies.
- National--We will experience a recession.
- International--The Flat World concept (Friedman) will be replaced with the lumpy world (Ghemawat). Companies will have to deal with a global skills shortage in very local ways.
- Mobile--Apple's greatest innovation in the iPhone is its browsing capability as a result the mobile internet will finally take off.
Here is how I fared with my 2007 predictions:
- Buzz--The buzz topic of 2007 will be energy and cleantech. We will see a huge growth in VC investments in such companies. I was right on. CleanTech investments by US venture capital firms reached $2.6 billion from 168 deals in the first three quarters of 2007, according to data from Thomson Financial and the National Venture Capital Association. The year to date 2007 dollar volume represents a 46% increase over full year 2006 dollar volume.
- Exits--After a six year hiatus Nasdaq IPOs are back and we will see a significant increase in Nasdaq technology company IPOs. Again I was correct. In the US there were 224 IPOs, raising $50bn. Additionally, Europe had a record year with a total of 651 IPOs, raising $90bn.
- National--We will see a slowdown in growth and may even experience a recession. I was partially correct, the sub-prime crisis did cause a dramatic drop in the housing market but while the overall economic growth slowed, there was no recession.
- International--There will be significant growth in US VC firms investing in India, especially in Infrastructure related growth opportunities. I was dead on. India is expected to place $13.5bn in VC/PE investments in 2007, up from $7.5bn in 2006. There are 366 PE firms operating in India with another 66 raising funds.
- Mobile--The Apple iPhone will have disappointing sales. I was totally wrong, the Apple iPhone lived up to its expectations and is selling briskly.