Here are my predictions for 2009:
- Buzz--The buzz topic of 2009 will be the shrinking of venture capital and private equity. The business model for this financial asset class is in need of change and until it does Limited Partners will lower their exposure to VC/PE.
- Exits--We will see a dramatic drop in M&A activity as a result of tight credit markets. We will see some recovery in the IPO market.
- National--We will experience a severe recession.
- International--India will recover from it's slowdown by Q2'09. China will not recover until 2010.
- Mobile--The emergence of client-server software on smartphones and the growth of BtoC enterprise mobile apps (what I call CRM 3.0).
Here is how I fared with my 2008 predictions:
- Buzz--The buzz topic of 2008 will continue to be energy and cleantech. We will see a huge growth in VC investments in such companies. I was right on. CleanTech investments by venture capital firms reached $4.1 billion up 52% with 277 deals in 2008. Source www.pwcmoneytree.com.
- Exits--We will see a dramatic increase in cross-border M&A with many Indian and Chinese companies acquiring US and European companies. I was dead wrong. China cross-border M&A dropped by 30% and India by 51% in 2008.
- National--We will experience a recession. Unfortunately I was right on.
- International--The Flat World concept (Friedman) will be replaced with the lumpy world (Ghemawat). Companies will have to deal with a global skills shortage in very local ways. I was right on. In spite of a global recession some countries have fared much better, eg India as compared to the US and China.
- Mobile--Apple's greatest innovation in the iPhone is its browsing capability as a result the mobile internet will finally take off. I was right on. Browsing has taken off with the iPhone browing holding a commanding lead with a 3X increase in it's share of total (landline and mobile) browsing.