Predictions for 2007

A little into the year but here are my predictions for 2007:

1. Buzz--The buzz topic of 2007 will be energy and cleantech. We will see a huge growth in VC investments in such companies.
2. Exits--After a six year hiatus Nasdaq IPOs are back and we will see a significant increase in Nasdaq technology company IPOs.
3. National--We will see a slowdown in growth and may even experience a recession.
4. International--There will be significant growth in US VC firms investing in India, especially in Infrastructure related growth opportunities.
5. Mobile--The Apple iPhone will have disappointing sales.

BTW, here is my scorecard on my 2006 predictions:

1. Buzz--Like Web 2.0 was the buzz topic of 2005, the buzz topic of 2006 will be video over the internet. We will see an explosion of amateur video content creation with distribution to PCs . I was dead on: Google acquired YouTube for billions, and internet video companies raised hundreds of millions from VCs.
2. Exits--We will see many US technology companies looking to exit on the London Stock Exchange's AIM exchange which has a lower hurdle than Nasdaq but is increasingly providing liquidity. I was partially right, there were a few AIM listings but not as many as I thought there would be.
3. National--After being eclipsed by silicon valley in 2005 Massachusetts will be back: companies to watch are Airvana, Netezza, Starent, Virtusa, Airwide, Confluent Surgical. I was dead on: Airvana, Netezza, Starent and Virtusa all filed for Nasdaq IPOs. Confluent Surgical was acquired for $245M by Tyco. The CEOs of all these companies will be on a panel at www.tieconeast.com on June 16th. Airwide added over 15 new wireless operator customers.
4. International--Indian IT companies will acquire US and European IT companies. I was dead on: 60% of total M&A or $8.4B was outbound M&A, though pharma was in the lead and accounted for $2.2B. IT M&A was second.
5. Mobile--Music downloads to cellphones (songs not ringtones) will become a billion dollar market. Wireless broadband for "last-mile" internet access by companies will expand dramatically. I was partially right, Clearwire had a billion dollar IPO. Music downloads grew more slowly than wireless "last mile".

Comments

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